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“There are some who find xG to be a complete waste of time, being of the position that actual goals are all that matters,” says Matt Burtz. “Others, myself included, find it to be at least somewhat instructive as to the relative merits of particular teams. By that measure Newcastle are the second best team in the Premier League, which isn’t entirely unexpected. What might be surprising is that Everton are ninth, ahead of the likes of Manchester United, Tottenham, and West Ham. And the thing is that watching them backs this up.
“Their 3-0 loss to Manchester United was hardly a demolition; in fact, Everton won the xG battle, they just didn’t convert their chances. They’ve also conceded the same number of goals as Aston Villa (who have played one more game). All of this is what leads me to think that Everton aren’t going down, even if the full ten-point deduction stays in place. Their away form has improved drastically and while they might not get any points tonight against a strong Newcastle side, things aren’t as bleak as they seem at Goodison.”