Drip feeding bets means splitting one idea into several smaller in-play bets. You back a goal at kick-off, then add another stake each time the odds drift because nothing has happened yet. It feels like you are getting better prices as the match goes on. However, the price is drifting for a reason: there is less time left for a goal.
This guide works through the maths for a first-half goal, over 1.5 goals and over 2.5 goals. In short, drip feeding bets does not create value on its own. Each extra stake is a new bet, and it is only worth placing if its price beats the real chance at that minute.
Read the transcript
Drip feeding means adding a new stake each time the in-play odds drift. Does it actually help? Let's check the maths.
Here's a typical plan for a first-half goal. Ten pounds at one point five at kick-off, then ten more at fifteen, twenty-five and thirty-five minutes, while it's still nil-nil.
The odds drift for a reason. Every minute without a goal leaves less time for one.
In a match with about one point two first-half goals expected, the fair price at kick-off is one point four three, so one point five is good value. But at twenty-five minutes, fair is two point four two, and at thirty-five minutes, it's over four. The later prices are far too short.
Overall, the plan loses about eight per cent of what it stakes, and three matches in ten end with all forty pounds gone.
It's the same for over one and a half and over two and a half goals. At typical in-play prices, every step loses about five per cent. Drip feeding just makes the swings bigger.
So before any in-play bet, work out the fair price for that minute, and only bet if the odds beat it. Set your limit before kick-off, and never add stakes to chase a loss.
Try our free drip feed calculator. Please bet responsibly.
The short version
- Odds drift in-play because the chance of a goal falls as the clock runs down.
- Every drip-fed stake is a separate bet, with its own expected value.
- Prices shorter than the fair odds at that minute cost you money over time, however good they look next to the kick-off price.
- A ladder also raises your total stake. In the first-half example below, all four stakes are gone about 3 times in 10.
How drip feeding bets works
Here is a typical plan for a first-half goal (over 0.5 first-half goals). You stake £10 at a time, and you only add the next bet if it is still 0-0:
- Kick-off: £10 at 1.50
- 15 minutes: £10 at 1.80
- 25 minutes: £10 at 2.00
- 35 minutes: £10 at 2.50
If a goal comes early, you stop and keep a small win. If it comes late, then every bet so far wins. But if no goal comes before half-time, none of the four bets wins, and you are £40 down.
Why the odds drift during the first half
Goals arrive at a fairly steady rate. As a result, as the minutes tick by with no goal, the chance of one before half-time falls. For example, take a match where you expect about 1.2 first-half goals. That is roughly 44% of a 2.7-goal match, which is normal for a top-flight game.
A simple Poisson model therefore gives the chance of at least one goal in the time left: 1 − e−1.2 × minutes left ÷ 45. Our guide to first half goals explains the model in more detail.
| Minute (still 0-0) | Chance of a first-half goal | Fair odds | Price in the plan | Value of that bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kick-off | 69.9% | 1.43 | 1.50 | +4.8% |
| 15 minutes | 55.1% | 1.82 | 1.80 | −0.9% |
| 25 minutes | 41.3% | 2.42 | 2.00 | −17.3% |
| 35 minutes | 23.4% | 4.27 | 2.50 | −41.5% |
First, the kick-off bet is good value at this estimate, because 1.50 beats the fair 1.43. By 25 minutes, however, 2.00 is far too short: the fair price is 2.42. At 35 minutes, 2.50 is less than two thirds of the fair 4.27. In other words, the later bets look bigger but are much worse.
What drip feeding bets does to your results
Now look at the plan as a whole. These are the five ways the first half can go, using the same 1.2-goal estimate:
| First goal comes | How often | Bets placed | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 15 minutes | 33.0% | 1 | +£5 |
| 15 to 25 minutes | 15.7% | 2 | +£13 |
| 25 to 35 minutes | 12.0% | 3 | +£23 |
| 35 to 45 minutes | 9.2% | 4 | +£38 |
| No first-half goal | 30.1% | 4 | −£40 |
Worked example
On average this plan stakes £25.77 a match, because later bets are only placed when it is still 0-0. Its expected result is about −£2.09 a match, or −8.1% of the money staked. The first bet has value. However, the two late bets cost more than it makes. Also, about 3 matches in 10 end £40 down.
You can test your own plan with the calculator below. Enter the expected goals, then the minute, price and stake for each step. It starts from a 2.7-goal match, so its figures differ very slightly from the tables here.
In-play drip feed calculator
Drip feeding bets on over 1.5 and over 2.5 goals
The same idea also applies to full-match goals. For example, here we use a 2.7-goal match and assume it is still 0-0 at each step. The “typical price” column is the fair price less a 5% margin, which is roughly what an in-play market offers.
| Minute (0-0) | Over 1.5: chance | Fair | Typical price | Over 2.5: chance | Fair | Typical price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kick-off | 75.1% | 1.33 | 1.27 | 50.6% | 1.97 | 1.88 |
| 15 minutes | 65.7% | 1.52 | 1.45 | 39.1% | 2.56 | 2.44 |
| 25 minutes | 58.0% | 1.72 | 1.64 | 31.0% | 3.23 | 3.07 |
| 35 minutes | 49.1% | 2.04 | 1.94 | 23.0% | 4.35 | 4.15 |
At typical prices, every step costs about 4.7% on average. So a £10 ladder on either market costs about 4.7% of what it stakes, the same as one bet would. The real difference, then, is the size of the swings. With four £10 bets on over 1.5, you are £40 down in about 18% of matches. On over 2.5, it is about 27%.
When adding in-play stakes can make sense
Drip feeding bets only helps when each in-play price is bigger than your own fair price at that minute. That can happen if you rated the match higher than the market before kick-off, or if the game changes in a way the price has not caught up with yet, such as a red card or a run of chances. Even then, it is the price that creates the value, not the ladder.
So, before you add a stake, work out the fair odds for the minute you are in. Then compare them with the best price. Our guides to expected value and fair odds show how. The Value Predictor gives you the form side of the picture before kick-off.
Set your limit before kick-off
In-play betting is fast, so it pays to decide the most you will stake on a match before it starts, and stick to it. Above all, never add stakes to win back money from an earlier bet. That is chasing losses, and it is a common sign that betting is becoming a problem. The Gambling Commission’s advice for players also explains the tools that can help, such as deposit limits.
Related guides
- First half goals: how the market works
- How to price an over 2.5 goals bet
- Betting variance: why value bets don’t always win
- Bankroll management for value bettors
- Why we only cover three goals betting markets
18+ only. Betting should be fun, and every bet can lose. Set a budget you can afford to lose and stick to it. For free, confidential support, visit BeGambleAware.org or call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133.