This drip feed calculator checks a plan of in-play goal bets that you add while a match is still 0-0. It also works out the fair odds at each minute, so you can see whether each stake is value on its own.
Prices drift as the clock runs, so later odds look bigger. However, that is because there is less time for a goal, not because the bet has got better.
In-play drip feed calculator
The short version
- First, pick a market: first-half goal, over 1.5 or over 2.5.
- Each step is a separate bet, so it has its own value.
- The calculator therefore uses a simple Poisson model of goals.
How to use the drip feed calculator
First, choose the market and enter the match’s expected goals. For the first half, however, the calculator uses 44% of that figure. Next, add up to 4 steps, each with a minute, the odds and a stake. That is because each step is only placed if it is still 0-0.
Then, for each step, it shows the chance it is still 0-0, the chance the bet lands, the fair odds and the value. Finally, it shows the overall average staked, the expected result, the EV % and the chance of losing every stake.
Worked example
Worked example
For example, take a first-half goal bet in a match with 2.5 expected goals, so 1.1 in the first half. The plan is £10 at each step:
| Minute | Odds | Still 0-0 | Lands | Fair odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.50 | 100% | 66.7% | 1.50 | +0.1% |
| 15 | 1.80 | 69.3% | 52.0% | 1.92 | −6.5% |
| 25 | 2.00 | 54.3% | 38.7% | 2.59 | −22.7% |
| 35 | 2.50 | 42.5% | 21.7% | 4.61 | −45.8% |
As a result, you stake £26.61 on average, and the expected result is −£3.62, an EV of −13.6%. Also, you lose all your stakes 33.3% of the time.
What the result means
To begin with, the kick-off bet is about break-even at this estimate. However, every later step is worse than the one before, so drip feeding makes the plan worse here. Our guide to drip feeding bets explains why.
Even so, the model is simple, so treat the output as a rough guide. For example, it ignores red cards and stoppage time. Also, our first half goals guide covers the model in more depth.
Other checks for the drip feed calculator
Also, you can test a single price with the expected value calculator, or see how results swing with the betting variance calculator. Finally, for the maths behind goal counts, see the Poisson distribution.
Related guides and calculators
18+ only. Betting should be fun, and every bet can lose. Set a budget you can afford to lose and stick to it. For free, confidential support, visit BeGambleAware.org or call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133.