These are the betting markets our Value Predictor covers: over 2.5 goals, under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and match result. We chose them because recent form says something useful about each one, the prices are wide enough for value to appear, and the exchanges give us a fair price to check against.
We also explain why we dropped two markets the Value Predictor used to cover: a goal in the first half and over 1.5 goals. They land often, but their prices are usually too short to offer value.
The short version
- The Value Predictor covers four betting markets: over 2.5, under 2.5, both teams to score and match result.
- Each pick shows both teams’ recent form, the best UK price and a fair price from the Smarkets and Matchbook exchanges.
- A green Value tag shows when the best UK price beats the fair price by 3% or more.
- We dropped a goal in the first half and over 1.5 goals, because their prices were usually shorter than the chance. We also dropped Asian handicap, because UK bookmakers on our odds feed don’t price it.
- Match result picks are favourites and mid-priced sides only, at 3.00 or shorter, and never the draw.
The four betting markets we cover
| Market | What the pick says | The form rule (default) |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3 or more goals in the match | Both teams 70% or more, averaging 3.0 goals or more |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2 goals or fewer | Both teams 70% or more, averaging 2.0 goals or fewer |
| Both teams to score | Each side scores at least once | Both teams’ games saw both sides score 70% or more of the time |
| Match result | The stronger-form side wins | Won 60% or more, 2 points a game or more, priced 3.00 or shorter |
By default, the Value Predictor looks at the home team’s last 5 home games and the away team’s last 5 away games in the same competition. You can change all of this on the Value Predictor page.
Why we chose these betting markets
1. Betting markets with prices wide enough for value
Value only exists when a price is bigger than the real chance suggests. For example, markets priced around evens, like over and under 2.5 and both teams to score, leave room for one bookmaker to be out of line with the rest. Our guide to odds shopping shows how much the best price is worth.
2. A fair price from the exchanges
Also, Smarkets and Matchbook run busy markets on all four. Where the best back and lay prices are close together, their midpoint is a sharp estimate of the true chance. Otherwise, we take the average UK bookmaker price with the margin removed. Our guide to fair odds explains the method.
3. Favourites and mid-priced sides only
For match result, the Value Predictor only picks the side priced at 3.00 or shorter, and never the draw. Across 7,149 matches in 20 European leagues from October 2025 to October 2026, longshots were the most overpriced part of the match result market. In contrast, short and mid-priced sides were priced much closer to their real chance, so that’s where a gap in one bookmaker’s price is most likely to be real.
4. Single bets, single margin
Each pick is a single bet with one bookmaker margin. By contrast, accumulators multiply margins together. For example, four legs at 5% each give a combined margin of 1.05 × 1.05 × 1.05 × 1.05 − 1 = 21.6%.
Betting markets we dropped: first-half goals and over 1.5
Earlier versions of the Value Predictor covered a goal in the first half and over 1.5 goals. Both land often, so they looked attractive. However, the problem is the price.
Worked example
Over the last year, our first-half picks were typically priced at about 1.29. A price of 1.29 only makes sense if the bet lands 1 ÷ 1.29 = 77.5% of the time. Our picks landed 73.2%.
Our over 1.5 picks were typically priced at about 1.17. That needs 1 ÷ 1.17 = 85.5%, and the picks landed 79.2%.
In both cases the form was good, but the price was already shorter than the chance.
As a result, at prices that short there is almost no room for one bookmaker to beat the real chance, so value was very rare. Our guides to first half goals and implied probability show how to work out the chance a price implies.
How to use the Value tag
A pick from the Value Predictor is a starting point, not a tip. First, look for the green Value tag. Then check the price with the bookmaker before you bet, and keep a record of every bet. Over time, our closing line value guide shows how to judge whether the prices you take are good ones. For independent research on how football goals are distributed, see the Poisson distribution explainer.
Related guides
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