Free course · No sign-up
Learn to spot a value bet in 25 short lessons
The value betting masterclass teaches you how to judge whether a price is too big, too small or about right. Every lesson is a short written guide with a video of about a minute. Work through them in order, or jump to the one you need.
- 25lessons
- 25short videos
- 6modules
- 2 hr 45 minin total, at your own pace
What the course is for
Read a price, not a tip
Most betting advice tells you who to back. This course shows you how to work out a fair price yourself, and spot when a bookmaker is offering more than a bet is worth. By the end, you will be able to:
Turn odds into a chance
Convert any odds to a percentage and strip out the bookmaker’s margin.
Work out expected value
Know what a bet is worth on average before you place it.
Find the best price
Use the exchange and sharp bookmakers as a guide to the fair price.
Stake sensibly
Set a budget, keep records and understand why good bets still lose.
Value offers properly
Judge free bets, boosts and casino bonuses on the numbers, not the headline.
Know the UK rules
Understand account restrictions and the new financial risk checks.
Who it is for
Written for UK bettors, no maths degree needed
The course is for you if…
- you are 18 or over and bet in the UK;
- you can do simple division on a phone calculator;
- you want to understand prices, not follow tips;
- you like to check the numbers yourself. Every idea comes with a worked example.
What it is not
- a tipping service;
- a way to make guaranteed money;
- a reason to bet more than you can afford. Every bet can lose.
How it works
Four simple steps
Open a lesson
Each one has a written guide and a video of about a minute on the key idea.
Watch, read or both
Videos tick themselves off at the end. Guides have a “Mark as read” box.
Watch it turn green
The bar under the menu fills in as you go, with a yellow dot on the lesson you are on.
Pick up where you left off
Progress is saved in your browser. No account needed. Just press “Continue”.
How long it takes
5 to 12 minutes a lesson
Each time below adds the reading time for the guide to the length of its video.
| Module | What you will learn | Lessons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. The foundations | What a value bet is, how to turn odds into a chance, remove the margin and work out expected value. | 5 | 40 min |
| 2. Finding the best price | Where good prices come from: comparing bookmakers, sharp prices, the exchange, closing line value and boosts. | 5 | 35 min |
| 3. Staking and variance | How much to stake, why good bets still lose, and how to keep records that show whether you have an edge. | 4 | 25 min |
| 4. Football markets and the Value Predictor | Pricing goals markets yourself, and how the Value Predictor picks, records and spreads its bets. | 5 | 30 min |
| 5. Offers, accounts and the rules | What free bets and casino bonuses are really worth, account restrictions and the new UK financial checks. | 4 | 30 min |
| 6. Tools and next steps | The tools that are available, and how value betting compares with matched betting and arbitrage. | 2 | 15 min |
| Whole course | Guides and videos, at your own pace | 25 | 2 hr 45 min |
The course outline
All 25 lessons
Start with lesson 1, or pick any lesson below. The time on each lesson covers the guide and the video.
25 lessons · 25 videos · 6 modules · about 2 hr 45 min in total
Work through the lessons in order, or jump to any of them. Tick each one off as you go: your progress is saved in this browser.
Module 1The foundations5 lessons · about 40 min
Value betting explained: the UK guideHow to judge whether a price is too big for its true chance, with the maths, the risks and the UK rules in plain English.12 min▶ VideoGuide
Implied probability: what betting odds really sayHow to turn decimal, fractional and American odds into a percentage chance, and why a market adds up to more than 100%.5 min▶ VideoGuide
Fair odds: how to take the margin out of a marketRemove the bookmaker margin from a 2-way or 3-way market, then compare the fair price with the best odds you can find.6 min▶ VideoGuide
Expected value betting: how to work out EVThe EV formula, worked examples and the honest reason one bet tells you almost nothing.6 min▶ VideoGuide
Value betting myths: 7 beliefs that don’t add upSeven common beliefs about value betting, checked against the maths with real numbers.8 min▶ VideoGuide
Module 2Finding the best price5 lessons · about 35 min
Odds shopping: what the best price is really worthA worked example showing how a few per cent better odds changes your long-run results.7 min▶ VideoGuide
Sharp bookmakers: who sets the price and why it mattersHow sharp and soft bookmakers differ, and why sharp prices make the best benchmark for judging value.8 min▶ VideoGuide
Betfair Exchange prices as a fair-odds benchmarkHow to use back and lay prices, the midpoint and commission to judge a bookmaker price against the exchange.6 min▶ VideoGuide
Closing line value: the best test of your betsHow to measure closing line value, why it is a faster signal than profit, and where it falls short.6 min▶ VideoGuide
Price boosts: how to tell if a boost is valueCheck whether a boosted price beats fair odds, and spot the common traps.6 min▶ VideoGuide
Module 3Staking and variance4 lessons · about 25 min
Bankroll management: staking within a budgetSet a betting budget you can afford to lose, keep stakes small and flat, and plan for bad runs.6 min▶ VideoGuide
Kelly criterion: how much to stake on a value betThe Kelly criterion formula, a worked example, and why most people stake a fraction of it or use flat stakes.5 min▶ VideoGuide
Betting variance: why value bets don’t always winWhy value bets don't always win, how long bad runs last, and how many bets it takes before results mean much.5 min▶ VideoGuide
Betting records: how to track your bets and test your edgeWhat to log for every bet, how ROI and yield differ, and how closing line value tests your edge.7 min▶ VideoGuide
Module 4Football markets and the Value Predictor5 lessons · about 30 min
Betting markets: what the Value Predictor covers and whyThe four betting markets the Value Predictor covers, and why we dropped first-half goals, over 1.5 and Asian handicap.6 min▶ VideoGuide
Over 2.5 goals: how to price the market yourselfTurn expected goals into a fair over 2.5 goals price with a simple Poisson model, and learn where it falls short.6 min▶ VideoGuide
First half goals: how to price a goal before the breakWhy first halves see fewer goals, and how to work out a fair price for a goal before half time.5 min▶ VideoGuide
Value Predictor track record: how the rules have doneA live backtest of the Value Predictor's rules, with hit rates and fair prices.5 min▶ VideoGuide
Drip feeding bets in-play: does adding stakes as the odds drift work?Why adding stakes as in-play goals odds drift doesn't create value on its own.7 min▶ VideoGuide
Module 5Offers, accounts and the rules4 lessons · about 30 min
Free bet value: what a welcome offer is really worthWork out what a free bet or welcome offer is really worth, and which terms cut that value.6 min▶ VideoGuide
Casino bonus value: how to work out what an offer is worthWhy there is no value betting at casino tables, and how to put a rough number on any casino bonus.7 min▶ VideoGuide
Betting account restrictions: why they happen and what to expectWhat the regulator's data says about betting account restrictions, how stake factors work and what to expect.7 min▶ VideoGuide
Financial risk checks: what the new UK rules mean for youHow the Gambling Commission's financial risk assessments will work, the deposit thresholds and what they mean for regular bettors.7 min▶ VideoGuide
Module 6Tools and next steps2 lessons · about 15 min
Value betting software: an honest guide to the toolsHow odds comparison tools, positive-EV scanners and trackers work, what they cost and their limits.8 min▶ VideoGuide
Value betting vs matched betting vs arbitrage: an honest comparisonAn honest side-by-side look at value betting, matched betting and arbitrage, with worked numbers and the real risks.7 min▶ VideoGuide
Keep learning
More value betting guides
New guides that go beyond the 25 lessons. We add one every week.
Put it into practice
Free tools to use alongside the course
Value PredictorChecks upcoming matches against both teams’ recent form, and shows the best UK price next to a fair price from the exchanges.Open the Value Predictor →
Betting calculatorsFair odds, expected value, Kelly stakes, CLV and more. Try the numbers from each lesson on real prices.See the calculators →
18+ only. Betting should be fun, and every bet can lose. Set a budget you can afford to lose and stick to it. For free, confidential support, visit BeGambleAware.org or call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133.