A both teams to score bet (BTTS) wins if each side scores at least one goal. The score can be 1-1 or 4-3; it doesn’t matter, as long as neither team ends on zero. BTTS is one of the most popular football markets in the UK, and like over 2.5 goals, you can price it yourself with a little maths.
This guide shows you how to turn each team’s expected goals into a fair BTTS price, how to take the margin out of the bookmaker’s Yes and No odds, and why your own number should always be checked against the market before you trust it.
The short version
- BTTS needs both teams to score, so it depends on how goals are split, not just how many are expected.
- A simple Poisson model gives the chance a team scores at least once as 1 − e−xG. Multiply the two teams’ chances together for BTTS Yes.
- Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. A price is only value if it is longer than your fair price.
- Small changes in one team’s expected goals move the BTTS price a lot, so treat your number as an estimate.
- If your price is far from the margin-free market price, your inputs are more likely to be wrong than the market.
How the BTTS market works
BTTS is a two-way market: Yes or No. Yes wins when both teams score. No wins when at least one team fails to score, so it covers every 0-0, every 1-0, every 3-0 and so on.
Before you bet, read the operator’s own rules for the market. Check whether it is settled on normal time only and how own goals are treated. These details can differ between bookmakers and exchanges, and they change what you are actually betting on.
Why total goals aren’t enough
It’s tempting to think a high-scoring game must be a good BTTS game. Not always. BTTS cares about the weaker attack. If one side is expected to score plenty and the other hardly at all, there can be lots of goals and still only one team on the scoresheet.
Here is the same 2.6 expected goals split four ways, using the Poisson method explained below:
| Home xG | Away xG | Chance of BTTS Yes | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.3 | 1.3 | 52.9% | 1.89 |
| 1.6 | 1.0 | 50.4% | 1.98 |
| 1.9 | 0.7 | 42.8% | 2.34 |
| 2.2 | 0.4 | 29.3% | 3.41 |
Same total, very different prices. An even game is the best BTTS game; a one-sided game is the worst. In fact, 2.4 v 0.6 (3.0 goals expected) gives only 41.0% for BTTS, lower than 1.3 v 1.3 (2.6 goals expected) at 52.9%.
Pricing BTTS with a Poisson model
A Poisson model turns an average number of goals into chances. You need one input per team: their expected goals (xG) for this match. You might build that from recent scoring and conceding, from an xG data source, or by working back from the market.
The key fact is simple. Under Poisson, the chance a team scores no goals is e−xG (e is about 2.718). So:
- Chance home team scores at least once = 1 − e−home xG
- Chance away team scores at least once = 1 − e−away xG
- Chance of BTTS Yes = (1) × (2)
- Chance of BTTS No = 1 − (3)
- Fair odds = 1 ÷ chance
Step 3 assumes the two teams’ goals are independent. That’s the model’s biggest simplification, and we come back to it below.
Worked example: pricing the match
Say you expect the home side to score 1.6 goals and the away side 1.2 (2.8 in total, the same figure used in our over 2.5 goals guide).
| Step | Working | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Home scores | 1 − e−1.6 = 1 − 0.2019 | 79.81% |
| Away scores | 1 − e−1.2 = 1 − 0.3012 | 69.88% |
| BTTS Yes | 0.7981 × 0.6988 | 55.77% |
| BTTS No | 1 − 0.5577 | 44.23% |
| Fair odds Yes | 1 ÷ 0.5577 | 1.79 |
| Fair odds No | 1 ÷ 0.4423 | 2.26 |
So on this model, a price of 1.79 on Yes is break-even. Anything shorter is poor value; anything longer is value if your inputs are right.
How sensitive the price is
Expected goals are estimates, and BTTS reacts strongly to them, especially the weaker side’s figure. Keep the home side at 1.6 and change the away side:
| Home xG | Away xG | Chance of BTTS Yes | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6 | 1.0 | 50.4% | 1.98 |
| 1.6 | 1.2 | 55.8% | 1.79 |
| 1.6 | 1.4 | 60.1% | 1.66 |
A 0.2 goal change in one team’s figure moves the fair price from 1.79 to 1.98 or 1.66. That’s a bigger swing than most bookmaker margins, which is why a home-made BTTS price needs care.
Taking the margin out of the market
The bookmaker’s prices have a margin built in, so the implied chances add up to more than 100%. Say the market is Yes 1.80, No 1.95.
- Yes: 1 ÷ 1.80 = 55.56%
- No: 1 ÷ 1.95 = 51.28%
- Total: 106.84%, so the margin is 6.84%
Divide each by the total to remove the margin (the simple proportional method from our fair odds lesson):
- Yes: 55.56 ÷ 106.84 = 52.0%, fair odds 1.92
- No: 51.28 ÷ 106.84 = 48.0%, fair odds 2.08
You can do the same sum with our fair odds calculator.
Your price v the market: which to trust?
Our model said 55.8% for Yes. The margin-free market says 52.0%. Here’s what that gap means for the expected value (EV) of a Yes bet at 1.90, found at another bookmaker:
| Chance used | Working | EV per £10 staked |
|---|---|---|
| Our model, 55.77% | (0.5577 × 1.90 − 1) × £10 | +£0.60 (+6.0%) |
| Market, 52.0% | (0.520 × 1.90 − 1) × £10 | −£0.12 (−1.2%) |
The same bet looks like value on one number and poor value on the other. Busy markets usually price BTTS well, so a gap this large is a warning sign. Before trusting your model, ask whether it knows something the market doesn’t (a confirmed team news change, say) or whether your expected goals inputs are simply a little high.
A sensible habit is to treat the margin-free market price as your starting point, and only call a price value when it beats that and your own number. Our Value Predictor works the same way: it compares the best bookmaker price with a fair price taken from the exchanges or the wider market, not with a form figure alone.
Where the simple model goes wrong
- Goals aren’t independent. A goal changes how both teams play. A side that goes behind often attacks more, and a side ahead may sit deeper. The basic model ignores this.
- Low scores. Plain Poisson models are known to misjudge how often 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1 happen, and those scores decide many BTTS bets.
- Inputs drift. Team news, red cards and tactics change expected goals. A price worked out on Monday may be stale by Saturday.
- Small edges, big swings. Even a genuine 3–5% edge means plenty of losing runs. Every bet can lose, and short-term results tell you very little.
As a reality check from our own data: when we backtested the Value Predictor across eight European leagues (22 Oct 2025 to 21 Oct 2026), BTTS landed in about 56% of matches. Use that sort of base rate to sense-check your model; if it says 75% for an ordinary match, something is off.
BTTS odds FAQ
What does BTTS mean in betting?
Both teams to score. Yes wins if each team scores at least one goal; No wins if either team (or both) fails to score.
How do I convert BTTS odds into a probability?
Divide 1 by the decimal odds. For example, 1 ÷ 1.80 = 55.6%. That figure includes the bookmaker’s margin, so remove it by dividing by the total of the Yes and No implied chances.
Is a high-scoring match always good for BTTS?
No. BTTS depends on the weaker side scoring. A match expected to finish 3-0 has plenty of goals but a low chance of BTTS.
Is BTTS Yes or No better value?
Neither is better in general. Value depends on the price against the true chance in each match. Work out a fair price for both sides and compare.
Does the bet include extra time?
It depends on the operator’s rules for that market. Check them before you bet.
Related lessons: Over 2.5 goals: how to price the market yourself, Fair odds: how to take the margin out of a market, Expected value betting and Odds shopping. Try the expected value calculator or see today’s prices in the Value Predictor.
18+ only. Betting should be fun, and every bet can lose. Set a budget you can afford to lose and stick to it. For free, confidential support, visit BeGambleAware.org or call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133.