Value Predictor
Our free Value Predictor checks upcoming matches in four markets: over 2.5 goals, under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and match result. Each pick shows both teams’ recent form, the best UK price, a fair price from the betting exchanges and a Value tag when the price beats it.
Games of the day
· UK time · picked by the Value Predictor
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Picks from our form rule, not a guarantee. Prices change, so check before you bet. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org
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Watch: how to use the Value Predictor
Read the transcript
This is the Value Predictor. It checks four markets, using recent form plus the latest odds.
At the top, Games of the day shows today’s strongest picks, with the best price and the fair price.
To build your own, pick a market, choose how far ahead to look, and how to judge form.
The box underneath shows how many fixtures match your settings. Tap it to see them.
Each row shows the pick in the middle, with the best price and the fair price. Value bets come first, or switch on Value bets only.
Tap a match to see the form behind it. Green dots are recent games that fitted the market.
Below are the best UK prices, and the fair price, with the bookmaker’s margin taken out. A price three per cent or more above it gets a green Value tag. Tap any price to open that match at the bookmaker.
Picks come from our form rule, not a guarantee. Prices change, so check before you bet. 18+ only. Please bet responsibly.
The video uses invented clubs and results to show how the tool works.
How the Value Predictor works
The Value Predictor uses one simple rule per market. A fixture qualifies when both teams have hit the market in enough of their recent games. By default, it looks at the home team’s last 5 home games and the away team’s last 5 away games in the same competition.
- Over 2.5 goals: both teams hit 70% or more, and their games averaged 3.0 goals or more.
- Under 2.5 goals: both teams had 2 goals or fewer in 70% or more of those games, and their games averaged 2.0 goals or fewer.
- Both teams to score: both teams’ games saw both sides score in 70% or more of those games.
- Match result: the side in stronger form has won 60% or more and averages 2 points a game or more. We only pick favourites and mid-priced sides, at 3.00 or shorter, and never the draw.
You can change the number of games, and use all venues or all competitions. All kick-off times are shown in UK time. Every pick shows the results behind it, so you can check the form yourself. Read how we choose the markets we cover.
Why we dropped first-half goals and over 1.5
Earlier versions of the Value Predictor covered a goal in the first half and over 1.5 goals. We have dropped both. They land often, but they are priced very short, so there is almost never value in them.
Over the last year, our first-half picks were typically priced at about 1.29. That price only makes sense if the bet lands about 77.5% of the time, and the picks landed 73.2%. Our over 1.5 picks were typically priced at about 1.17, which needs about 85.5%, and they landed 79.2%. The form was good, but the price was already shorter than the chance.
The four markets we cover now have wider prices and busy exchange markets. That lets the Value Predictor compare the best UK price with a fair price, and tag value when it appears.
Read the transcript
Our Value Predictor now covers four markets: over and under two and a half goals, both teams to score, and match result. Here's why we dropped first-half goals and over one and a half.
Both markets land often, but they're priced very short. Over the last year, a typical price for our picks was about one point two nine for a first-half goal, and one point one seven for over one and a half.
A price of one point two nine only makes sense if the bet lands about seventy-seven per cent of the time. Our first-half picks landed seventy-three. For over one and a half, the price needed about eighty-five per cent, and the picks landed seventy-nine. The form was good, but the price was already shorter than the chance.
At prices that short, there's almost no room for a bookmaker's price to beat the real chance. So value was very rare.
The four markets we cover now have wider prices and busy exchange markets. That lets the predictor compare the best UK price with a fair price from the exchanges, and flag value when it appears.
Look for the Value tag, compare prices, and please bet responsibly.
Using the Value Predictor with the odds
A match that qualifies is a pick, not a guarantee. It tells you recent form supports the pick. Whether it is worth a bet depends on the price. First, estimate the chance, then turn it into a fair price: 1 ÷ 0.60 = 1.67 for a 60% chance. If the best odds beat your fair price, it may be value. If not, it isn’t, however good the form looks.
The Value Predictor does this sum for you. It works out a fair price from the Smarkets and Matchbook exchanges, using the midpoint of the best back and lay prices when the gap between them is small. Otherwise it uses the average price across UK bookmakers with their margin taken out. When the best UK price beats the fair price by 3% or more, the pick gets a green Value tag. Turn on Value bets only to see just those picks.
Read the transcript
Here's how to use our Value Predictor with the odds.
The predictor checks each team's recent games against a simple rule. For over two and a half goals, both teams need seventy per cent of their recent games over two and a half, and an average of three goals or more.
A match that qualifies is a pick, not a guarantee. It tells you recent form supports goals.
Next, think about the real chance. Say you judge over two and a half goals at sixty per cent. The fair price is one divided by zero point six. That's one point six seven.
Now check the best price. At one point eight, it beats your fair price. At one point five five, it doesn't, however good the form looks.
Form is a starting point. Price decides whether it's value. Please bet responsibly.
Our Value Predictor track record shows how often each rule has landed on finished matches. For the maths, read our guides to pricing over 2.5 goals, fair odds and expected value.
Where the Value Predictor data comes from
Fixtures and results come from football-data.org and update through the day. Odds, when shown, come from a live UK odds feed and can change quickly, so always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
These picks come from past results, not a guarantee. Recent form doesn’t guarantee what happens next, so treat the Value Predictor as one input alongside the odds and team news. New to this? Start with value betting explained.